I don’t like overanalyzing the NFL in the middle of the season because the story lines change every week and everyone overreacts.

Need proof?

Well, 10 weeks into the season:

• The Giants have gone from the class of the NFC to a team that isn’t mentally tough.
• The Cowboys have gone from a team that cannot win with Tony Romo to arguably the best team in the NFC and back to a team that cannot win with Romo.
• Mark Sanchez has gone from being crowned this year’s Matt Ryan to a struggling NFL rookie.
• The Jets defense was being called a mirror image of the Baltimore Raven’s defense and now they can’t stop people.
• The Eagles were everyone’s pick to win the NFC East and now they are being called a finesse team.

The list could go on-and-on. Talk to me at about week 14 and we will have a better idea of where everyone stands. The NFL is a marathon, not a sprint.

Hero to goat is a term that describes NFL players week-to-week. Players are prematurely crowned, teams are overhyped, and the story lines change every week. It never stops.

We might be 10 weeks into the season, but there is still a long way to go and we still don’t know that much. Everyone likes to overanalyze what is going on in the NFL, but right now we don’t know much.

Five things we know about the NFL so far?

1. Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh are the only legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.
2. The Minnesota Vikings are the best team in the NFC.
3. The New Orleans Saints are built for regular season success, but playoff success is to be determined.
4. The Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals want to be contenders, but aren’t right now.
5. All of this is subject to change.

Patriots vs. Colts

Belichick’s dumb decision cost the Patriots the game, but didn’t cost a lot in the long run.  A lot of people are criticizing Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on fourth down Sunday night against the Colts in his own territory and rightfully so. There is no reason that a coach with the experience and success of Belichick should ever do something that foolish. I would expect this from an irrational college coach, but not the best coach in recent NFL history.

Giving the Colts the ball with two minutes left in the game and one timeout at the 29-yard-line is foolish. Sure, if the Patriots convert on fourth down they win the game, but you have to play the percentages.

Even if the Patriots convert on fourth, the decision to go for it is foolish. I have heard some people say it wouldn’t have mattered because the Colts would’ve scored anyway. That is a hypothetical statement.

It is harder to drive 70 yards in two minutes than it is to drive 30 yards in two minutes. That is a factual statement.

I am all about hypothetical sports debates, but I will side with the facts on this one. While Belichick’s decision may have cost the Patriots the game, in the long run it isn’t too costly.

The Patriots (6-3) are still going to win their division and have an excellent chance to have a first round bye. They are still the only team with a winning record in the AFC East and are two games ahead of the 4-5 Dolphins. Furthermore, they are also one game behind the Cincinatti Bengals for a first round bye and home field advantage against everyone except Indianapolis.

I am sure Belichick and company would much rather play the Colts at home during the playoffs, but despite last night’s loss the Patriots showed they can compete with Indianapolis and probably should’ve won the game.